South Australia enjoys modest population growth

South Australia is another state that gets overlooked in the current environment of strong population growth.  For many years South Australia has recorded modest population growth, without the extremes of localised growth recorded in parts of Melbourne and Sydney.  In 2017-18, South Australia recorded a population growth rate of 0.7%, below the national figure of 1.6%, to reach a population of 1.74 million.  Greater Adelaide's growth rate in 2017-18 was slightly higher at 0.8%.  What population trends are evident in South Australia?  Read on to find out.

South Australia loses population interstate

South Australia has a long history of population loss to other parts of Australia, so the population is growing through natural increase and net overseas migration.  In 2017-18, the volume of net interstate migration loss was -5,150 persons.  In fact, the net loss was slightly higher than the gain through natural increase, so net overseas migration is the driver of population growth in South Australia.  

Most South Australians who move interstate head to Victoria, NSW and Queensland, but of these states only Victoria and Queensland gain population from South Australia eg more South Australians move to Victoria than in the opposite direction.

What are the patterns of population change?

As always, the devil is in the geographic detail.  The map below shows the population growth rate for LGAs in South Australia in 2017-18.  Mount Barker District Council recorded the highest growth rate (2.4%), marginally ahead of the City of Adelaide (2.3%).  Mount Barker is a peri-urban council with a significant amount of land zoned for future residential development.  Its location within 30km of the Adelaide CBD with good transport links makes it attractive for people seeking home owning opportunities with commuting distance of the city.  Conversely, growth in the City of Adelaide is primarily driven by construction of high rise apartment blocks that are suitable for smaller households. 

Population change in Adelaide

All LGAs in Greater Adelaide recorded population growth in 2017-18, but in keeping with state trends, overall the rates were modest.  Aside from the aforementioned Mount Barker and Adelaide councils, the only other LGAs to record population growth above 1.0% were Playford (1.5%) and Charles Sturt (1.2%).  These LGAs also recorded the highest volume of growth in 2017-18 (1,360 and 1,350 persons respectively).  Playford is located on the northern outskirts of the urban area, and is growing through the development of greenfield sites.  In contrast, the driver behind growth in Charles Sturt is infill and the redevelopment of former industrial sites closer to the CBD, as well as the new suburb of St Clair built on the former Cheltenham Park racecourse.  

Population change in regional South Australia

Beyond Adelaide and its surrounds the population change story is very different.  Areas to the north and east of Adelaide recorded stronger growth, particularly the Rural City of Murray Bridge (1.5%), as well as the Barossa and Mid Murray Councils (both 1.3%).  The 1.5% growth rate recorded in Murray Bridge was the highest since 2011-12, to reach a 2018 population of 22,165.  Similar to neighbouring Mount Barker, Murray Bridge has good transport connections into Adelaide and offers relatively affordable home owning opportunities.

Copper Coast Council, Robe and Streaky Bay also recorded a population growth rate of 1.5% in 2017-18.  These are coastal areas with high amenity values that attract residents.  The regional LGA with the highest growth rate was the Aboriginal Council of Maralinga Tjarutja in the remote west of the state (4.9%).  However, this strong growth consisted of just three people, and demonstrates how it can be important to look at both the rate and volume of population growth in order to get a better indication of trends.

Many parts of rural and outback South Australia recorded population decline, some of this is part of a longer downward trend as a result of restructuring in agricultural and other industries such as steel.  The District Council of Orroroo-Carrieton in the Mid North Region declined by -4.7%, but this is a small council with less than 1,000 people and the loss amounted to 42 people.  More notable is continuing population decline in the City of Whyalla (-1.1%).  Whyalla has been on somewhat of a population rollercoaster for several decades.  Following rapid growth in the 1950s and 1960s, followed by steady decline since the 1970s, there was some growth recorded between 2005-06 to 2013-14.  However, with the contraction of jobs in the steel industry and the subsequent sale of the Whyalla steelworks, the City's population declined from 22,700 in 2013-14, to 22,000 in 2017-18 as people moved away to find jobs elsewhere.  This may change in the future as the steelworks were purchased by the GFG Alliance, who have announced major plans to reinvest in the industry.  Watch this space, as they say.

Summary

South Australia recorded a growth rate of 0.7% in 2017-18 but the picture is quite mixed when different parts of the state are considered.  The peri-urban council of Mount Barker recorded the highest population growth rate of all LGAs in the state (2.4%), followed closely by the City of Adelaide (2.3%).  No LGAs in Greater Adelaide lost population in 2017-18, but away from the capital it was a different story.  Some councils closer to Adelaide recorded stronger growth and these included Murray Bridge, Mid Murray and Barossa.  However many rural and outback councils recorded decline, notably the industrial city of Whyalla which continues to deal with the impact of the sale of its steelworks.